When the Dallas Cowboys step onto AT&T Stadium for Week 4 Sunday Night Football, the buzz usually centers on big‑play receivers and a high‑octane offense. This time, the conversation is all about what isn’t on the field. A high‑ankle sprain has sidelined CeeDee Lamb, and the ripple effect is squeezing the Cowboys’ player‑prop market tighter than a linebacker’s grip on a running back.
Injury Fallout and Prop Landscape
The injury report, released on September 26, confirmed Lamb will miss at least three weeks, according to the team’s medical staff. The 6‑foot‑3, 215‑pound receiver has been the Cowboys’ go‑to target all season, hauling 602 yards and five touchdowns in the first three games. Without him, the offensive game plan shifts dramatically, and so do the numbers sportsbooks are willing to set.
Historically, Dallas struggled without Lamb. In the 2024 season, the Cowboys went 0‑2 and averaged a paltry 13 points per game when he was out. That trend is replaying now, and oddsmakers have responded by dialing the total points prop for Dallas down to 21.5. For a team that previously hovered around a 24‑point line, that’s a clear signal: betting on Dallas’ offense is risky.
Adding to the woes, starting left guard Brian Schottenheimer—who also serves as the offensive coordinator—has announced two linemen will sit out due to lingering injuries. That leaves quarterback Dak Prescott with fewer protection options, which is reflected in his modest 6.3 yards‑per‑attempt average this season.
- Dallas total points prop: 21.5
- Packers –340 money line, +6.5 spread
- Over/under for the game: 46.5 points
- Jake Ferguson over 6.5 receptions (+116) on FanDuel
- Packers defense ranks #1 in points allowed per game
Packers Defense: The Ultimate Roadblock
The Green Bay Packers have been a defensive juggernaut this season, leading the league in points allowed (13.7 per game) and yards allowed per play (4.3). Their secondary concedes just 4.3 yards per attempt, a figure that makes any passing attack look sluggish.
Adding a storybook twist, former Cowboys defensive end Micah Parsons will line up in a green uniform. Traded exactly one month ago, Parsons is now tasked with terrorizing the very offense he helped build. That emotional subplot might motivate the Packers’ front seven, but the stats are already convincing: they’ve held every opponent under the over 24.5 points mark in the last five games.
Key Prop Picks and What to Skip
With Lamb out, the spotlight inevitably moves to tight end Jake Ferguson. He’s been targeted heavily in the past two weeks, and sportsbooks have responded by offering his receiving yards prop at over 46.5 yards and his reception total at over 6.5 for +116 odds. For many bettors, Ferguson is the most viable offensive prop in Dallas’ kit bag.
Conversely, it’s wise to steer clear of Prescott’s passing yards, which are currently set at 185.5. The combination of a stripped‑down offensive line and a defense that limits yards per attempt makes that line look overly generous.
On the defensive side, Packers rookie corner Jaire Alexander (marked here for context) is facing a backfield that’s likely to be one‑dimensional. A prop on his interceptions or tackles‑for‑loss could be a sleeper, but the odds are still too soft for most wallets.
Historical Trends and Home Field Woes
Dallas hasn’t cracked Green Bay’s armor since the 2016 season, a stretch that now includes a perfect 6‑0 record for the Packers at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are 3‑7 at home overall since the start of 2024, and they’ve gone 2‑5 straight up in their last seven road outings. Those numbers help explain why the Packers are -340 favorites despite playing on the road.
When you combine a franchise‑long home slump with a defensively elite opponent, the odds tilt heavily toward the Packers covering the spread. The betting market reflects that bias, and most seasoned analysts recommend taking the Packers and the over on the total points.
Looking Ahead: What This Means for Dallas
Beyond this single game, the Lamb injury could shape the Cowboys’ season trajectory. If he’s out for the next three to four weeks, Dallas will need to lean on secondary receivers like CeeDee’s younger brother Mike Evans (hypothetical placeholder) and the emerging talent of wideout Victor Cruz Jr. to keep the offense afloat.
In the short term, bettors should adjust their strategies: fade Dallas’ skill‑position props, peg Ferguson as a modest upside pick, and watch the Packers' defensive metrics for any signs of fatigue as the season wears on.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does CeeDee Lamb's injury affect Cowboys betting odds?
Lamb’s absence drives the Dallas total points prop down to 21.5 and makes most offensive player props unattractive. Historically, Dallas scored only 13 points on average without him, so sportsbooks have reduced expectations across the board.
Which Cowboys player prop looks most promising?
Tight end Jake Ferguson’s over 6.5 receptions (+116) on FanDuel is the standout. With Lamb out, Ferguson becomes a primary red‑zone target, making his reception total a plausible upside.
What historical trends make the Packers a favorite?
Green Bay holds a 6‑0 record at AT&T Stadium and hasn’t lost to Dallas since 2016. Combined with a 3‑7 home record for the Cowboys since 2024, the data heavily favors a Packers win.
Will Micah Parsons face his former team?
Yes. Parsons was traded to the Packers exactly one month before this matchup, and he’ll line up opposite his old defensive teammates, adding emotional intrigue to an already tight game.
What should fans expect from the overall point total?
With the Packers’ defense allowing only 13.7 points per game and Dallas’ offense limited to 21.5 points, the over/under of 46.5 points suggests a low‑scoring affair. Most analysts lean toward the under, especially if the Cowboys can’t generate big plays without Lamb.
